Anyone who has been following my blog will note that I changed URLs to be a ritual-focused blog and then went silent, and now I’m back at the old URL of thepdv.wordpress.com. I was pretty enthusiastic, so what changed?
Short version? My
P(Superintelligence before 2070) skyrocketed.
Given current ML progress, it no longer looks plausible that anyone in the current rationalist community who does not already have adult children will have adult grandchildren on this side of the Singularity. We will most likely have one more generation who reach adulthood; we will not have two. Either we’ll be dead, or we will cross the point beyond which the future cannot be predicted, which is, remember, what ‘singularity’ means.
Maintaining a culture across one generation is feasible without a coherent strategy. More likely to succeed with a strategy, certainly, but feasible without one. Only for two generations (or more) is it desperately important to work out rituals, holidays, social practices, etc., that preserve the values and good qualities of the community and carry them into the future.
It’s still interesting and I may try things. But it’s no longer my contribution to the community and the shared project. It’s just a fun hobby.